The total fertility rate is declining worldwide, leading to a decrease in population scale in many countries. According to the “World Fertility and Family Planning Documents of 2020” released by the United Nations, the global fertility rate dropped from 3.2 live babies from each woman in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019. In addition, the fertility rate is expected to continue to decline. According to the UN mid -term change forecast, the global fertility rate is expected to reach 2.2 live babies at each woman in 2050, reaching 1.9 in 2100. Other census also concluded similar conclusions. Among them, according to the data of the seventh national census, China’s total fertility rate in 2020 reached a low point of 1.3, which has fallen into a low fertility trap. The decline in birth rate will lead to a decline in labor force, restrictions on economic development, insufficient innovation and population aging. Global aging society will bring severe economic, medical and humanitarian challenges.
Generally speaking, many countries have planned family planning as one of several methods to reduce the negative impact of population structure. For example, the Chinese government issued a conditional “two -child” policy in November 2013. However, the fertility potential of policy adjustment and release is far from expected. In October 2015, the government issued the “general two -child” policy to stimulate fertility. The fertility rate increased by 12.95 ‰ and 12.43 ‰ in 2016 and 2017, but the policy of the policy was insufficient, and the promotion of fertility behavior was limited. Compared with the same period of 2011-2015, the birth rates in 2018 and 2019 decreased by 1.17 ‰ and 1.63 ‰, respectively. On May 31, 2021, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee announced that “a couple can have three children and enjoy supporting measures.” Whether the introduction of this policy will reverse the current status of low fertility and help delay the aging process of population, it remains to be observed.
This study aims to evaluate the third child’s willingness of the Chinese people after the three -child policy is announced, determine the reasons why the participants decide whether to have three children, and analyze the influencing factors of social population characteristics. The analysis of influencing factors in this study is limited to the relatively constant general population characteristics, which can help determine the potential group of the third child who is willing to give birth to the third child. Different from previous research, this study also evaluated the wishes of the spouse, rather than only paying attention to the husband or wife.
This study conducted a cross -section survey in mainland China from June to July 2021. A total of 15,332 childcare participants answered online and completed the parenting intention questionnaire.
1. Participants’ social population characteristics
The geographical distribution of 15,332 participants was divided into seven major geographical areas in China (see Figure 1). For details of population characteristics, see Table 1. The average age of participants is 32.9 ± 5.94 years, and those 31-40 account for the largest proportion (51.1%). Most of them are first marriage (97.3%) and Han nationality (74.6%). It is worth noting that the number of people living in the city is almost 6 times that of the countryside. More than half of the participants include bachelor’s degree (56.0%) and at the lowest level of monthly income (54.5%). Most of the loans (67.8%). In occupations, the highest proportion of medical staff (71.0%) and the highest proportion of women (78.4%). About a quarter (79.7%) already have one or two children.
2. Third child intention status
Only 12.2%of all participants in this study said they wanted a third child. Most of the investigators (70.0%) say they have the same intention as their spouses. In Table 2, you can find more results about the willingness of the third child in different groups.
3. For the reasons for the three children’s different decisions
Among those who are willing to have three children, 22%want a man and one girl, 14.8%think that the third child is conducive to the development of children, and 14.3%of them just like children. For those who do not want three children, the first reason is the busy work (29.2%), followed by the high cost (28.1%) and the influence of the children’s concept (10.6%) Essence For more details, see Table 3.
4. Factors affecting the willingness to fertility in the third child
The minimum tolerant is 0.650 (both greater than 0.1), and the maximum variance expansion coefficient (VIF) is 1.538 (both less than 10), indicating that there are no obvious multiple common linear problems. The P value than the test is less than 0.001, indicating that the model has sufficient fit. Hosmer and LeMeshow’s stalem value is 9.558 and the P value is 0.297 (greater than 0.05), indicating that the model has sufficient fitting. Affected by factors such as age, gender, nation, marriage status, place of residence, education, housing ownership, average monthly income of family, and existing children, it is the influencing factors of the will of the three childs in China (Table 4).
In summary:
(1) The willingness to give birth to three children in mainland China is low
About one -eighth (12.2%) respondents expressed their hope to have three children, below the second child intention of Chinese childcare women (36.2%) and migrant population (21.3%). In this survey, most couples have the same intention (70.0%). The willingness to fertility changes with the changes in conditions. Studies have shown that the decision to give birth to children is multi -faceted, depending on individuals and economic factors, but also on social policies. It is not enough to rely on policies to promote the increase in birth intentions. The focus of policy formulation should be shifted to the third child intention of understanding and guiding the population of childbearing age. (2) Limitation of time and energy and high education costs are the main reasons for low willingness
Children’s care, care and education are time -consuming and laborious. Regardless of the type of occupation, busy work, and children’s breeding, parents will exhaust their parents. This is the main reason why they don’t want to have three children. Due to the lack of nursery services that lack public subsidies, children’s conservation costs have increased significantly. For the education of school -age children, due to the increase in education expenditures inside and outside the school, the family’s economic burden has also increased. Outside school costs are generated by parents registering various supplementary courses and interest classes by parents. The school expenses include purchasing school district housing and payment school selection fees. According to the data from the China Education Group Investigation (CEPS), the expenditure of the average family of family education in 2014 reached 2268 yuan per year. Therefore, increasing the financial investment served by public childcare and reducing the education cost of school -age children will help increase the intention of giving birth to more children.
(3) There are differences in the characteristics of social population learning with three -child intention
This study found that with the increase of age, the willingness of participants to have three children gradually decreased (or = 0.960, 95%CI = 0.950, 0.971). The risk of complications is high. This also shows that if the government can provide pre -pregnancy health guidance for the elderly couples, their willingness to fertility may improve.
The willingness of men to have three children is more than twice that of women, which may be related to the diversification of social responsibilities caused by gender differences. Regarding fertility, women bear the main responsibility of pregnancy and childbirth, which is more risk for women’s physical and mental health than men. In addition, for professional women, more children with childbirth means a greater threat to career development. Therefore, women are more cautious and conservative when expressing their intentions.
The third child is willing to be stronger than the Han nationality (or = 1.819, 95%CI = 1.612–2.042), which may be related to the long -term impact of the 35 -year -old child policy on the 35 -year -old child policy.
In the past, we paid more attention to the differences in fertility between the married and the singles, and they knew little about the relationship between the first marriage or remarriage and the intention of the three children. This study found that the possibility of remarried participants with the third fertility intention is 2.34 times (or = 3.041, 95%CI = 1.418–6.521). The potential cause may be related to the tendency of the selection of restructuring families, which may help maintain and strengthen the emotional relationship between husband and wife and family members.
The horizontal data analysis of the relationship between education and fertility intentions reveals the diversity of the research results. Education is one of the most determined social and economic decisive factors for fertility, which is inversely proportional to fertility behavior. The results of this study are similar to previous studies: Compared with participants with high school education, the third child intention of participants with a bachelor’s degree and a master’s degree decreased by 37.7%and 44.6%, respectively. Some of them are related to some of them get rid of the phenomenon of raising children.
According to the system evaluation, the type of housing is related to the intention of having three children. Even the participants in renting a house now have the willingness to give birth to a third child 15.9%stronger than those who have a house with a house (OR = 0.841, 95%CI = 0.720-0.982). Compared with renting a house, the economic pressure on loans in China is even greater. If the loan interest rate can be reduced, or it can provide more convenient and more sustainable leasing services, it will help increase the willingness of childbirth to have more children.
The annual income of the family has an important impact on fertility: the higher the economic conditions, the greater the attention of the quality of fertility, and the greater the desire to fertility. The third fertility intention of people with a monthly monthly income of less than 20,000 yuan and less than 30,000 yuan is 80.5%and 78.2%of the population of less than 10,000. In addition, the reasoning analysis of different third child intentions shows that the high cost of raising and educating children is the second main reason for being unwilling to have three children.
Historically, the decline in fertility has begun earlier, and its development speed is faster than rural areas. In this study, the three children of the rural population are 1.203 times that of the urban population. The reason may be related to different regional backgrounds and fertility ideology, such as employment of maternity, high living costs, and increasing the opportunities for education and labor market opportunities in the urban environment. All the above factors have become obstacles to increase and realize birth intentions.
Compared with those who have not yet given birth, the third child’s willingness to have two children has increased by 83.9%. However, those who have only one child are not willing to have a third child (or = 0.853, 95%CI = 0.729-0.998). This may be related to the differences in different groups of people, cultural backgrounds, and differences in the number of existing children. In general, the overall level of the third child intention of the childcare population is not high. Exploring the social population characteristics that affect the third child helps to understand the fertility desires of different groups and provide clues for exploring potential fertility driving factors. The younger, male, ethnic minorities, remarriage, education level and family monthly income are low, the fertility age of living in the countryside and already two children has shown a higher willingness to be a third child. The results show that the third fertility willingness to implement a effective strategy and stimulate the childcare population should be implemented. This strategy should enable people to combine the salary work with their parents, including flexible working hours, non -full -time work, non -salary parenting non -salary parenting. Fake and affordable housing and children’s conservation protection. This is particularly meaningful for improving individuals who have high -quality resources (such as higher levels of education and economic resources).
Original source:
Yan et al. Third Intentation of the ChildBearing-Age Population in Mainland China and Sociodemography: A Cross-sectional Survey.bmc Public Health 221 21) 221)
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-12338-8.
